Earlier this week I reported on Moneyweb how SA magazines are feeling the pinch of the recession with the latest AdEX/Nielsen’s numbers showing adspend in those titles from 2008 to 2009.
Well, the picture ain’t pretty when it comes to newspapers either. If you look at the chart below (Also AdEx/Nielsens) you can see what I mean. Treat the numbers with some caution because they don’t take into account discounting and other things, but this is useful as an apples versus apples comparison to at least show a broader trend.
You can easily see who the winners have been during the recession (some surprises in weekend business titles). The Independent on Saturday’s Personal Finance section appears to have performed strongly. We also see the Sunday Times up well, according to this measure, although Business Times took a major hit. The relatively new kid on the block, The Times, also shows strong growth despite the odds. The Daily Voice is another standout and Business Day Surveys appears to be cooking.
Anyway, it makes for some interesting reading. Be keen to hear your insights on these numbers. Give the chart a few seconds to load. There are a lot of titles here.

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Now here’s a sign of the times. The Media Online reports today that a Chinese language newspaper has been launched in Botswana that will gradually be circulated throughout other African countries.

Much is made of the  Geel Gevaar and it’s true China cares not one jot for human rights but they are a  rising  superpower and it’s interesting to watch the balance shift.

Moneyweb ran an interesting piece a couple of weeks back about the increasing number of Chinese nationals doing business in Zimbabwe but the best insight I’ve had recently into China and its economic and political future is from a book published last year called "The Dragon and The Elephant" by David Smith, the economics editor of The Sunday Times in London. 

In the book, Smith looks at the future of the Chinese and the Indian economies. Of course, it’s complex stuff but not the doomsday  some would have us believe.

Yes, China is a huge economy and still growing, Smith says in the book, but it also has fundamental weaknesses such as it’s banking system, which is so up the pole that few multinationals are keen on being listed in China and that’s why the Shanghai stock exchange of little consequence.

Another point Smith made in the book was that he thought it perfectly acceptable — in fact desirable — for developing economies (such as South Africa’s) to protect their industries against cheaply made Chinese imports (think of our textile and garment industries) until the country is able to compete globally on a more equal footing.

David Smith has a blog, which is excellent for those with a basic understanding of economics.

 

 

 

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Five things you need to know about SA today

1. Forget recession. The new buzz word is stagflation — and that’s what we’ve got, say economists in this News24 story, which is frankly a little too complicated for self-styled plonkonomists such as myself. So here’s the simple explanation: the term comes from stagnation and inflation and means we’ve got a stagnant business climate and low economic growth but high inlfation. A bit of a poser really.

2. Business Day, however, has written a handy, accessable little opinion piece on the problem. It’s well worth a read here.

3. SABMiller has announced a R6-billion BEE deal, whereby  they are selling 10% of its SA business to employees, black-owned licensed liquor retailers and liquor licence applicants. Read the story at Engineering News here.

4. SA’s most aggressive media company, Naspers, has done rather well on the back of recession-proof pay-TV in its annual results. The best insight into the company and its very smart head honcho, Koos Bekker, comes from a transcript of Alec Hogg’s interview with Bekker from Moneyweb’s SAfm radio show. Click here to read. 

5. And while on annual results, Moneyweb’s own are very interesting to read. Highlights include that earnings were hit by having to pay what seems a rather large sum in a British law suit after Mineweb defamed a Russian businessman, that  the global financial crisis spelled an increase in users and that plans for the year include offering online comparisons for consumers on car and home insurance from 10 financial  institutions.  Cool! Bring it on, I say. Read about the results here at Moneyweb.

 

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Five things you need to know about SA today

1. It’s the state of nation address today in Parliament. Always interesting to see how fast and well the online media can cover such an event. Meanwhile, The Times reports that both Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki will be there. Click here to read.

2. Business Day has an interesting analysis of Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni’s unusual attempt to talk down the rand yesterday. Click here to read. He’s clearly worried about our exports, with mining and manufacturing showing record declines recently.

3. Moneyweb has an interesting international story about Australia bucking the world trend and avoiding recession thus far. The magic ingredient seems to be aggressive action from Oz’s central bank, which cut its repo rate by 425 basis points in  seven months, taking it to a record low of 3%. The government also came up with  A$52-billion stimulus package. Read the story here.

4. Business Report explains why food prices in SA supermarkets are still high while agricultural prices have dropped. Commodities are hard to understand but it seems the rand has some role to pay and it takes a while for lower agricultural prices to feed into the economy. You can take some solace from the fact that we’re not the only ones in the world with high food prices.  In Canada, for instance, food inflation is 17 times higher than overall inflation – at 7.1%  compared with 0.4 %. In SA, food inflation is 13.7%  compared with  8.4% overall. Click here to read the story at IOL.

5. Which brings us back to President Jacob Zuma’s address today. The M&G says our economic woes are sure to take centre stage in the speech. Click here to read a rundown of the concerns analysts would like to see addressed.

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The price of food really gets me down and my guess is that this is not just recession related. With South Africa now a net importer of food, our daily grub will be at the vagaries of international fuel prices and currency exchanges from some time to come.

So, here’s some food for thought, all you lazy desk-bound folk: I think it’s high time we all start growing our own veggies. Which is why I’ve been scouting my garden for a sunny spot and went down to the local nursery to peruse their seed selection. For R112, I got myself a packet each of onions, aubergines (better than bacon in a Sunday morning fry up), garden cress, “yellow pear” tomatoes (never heard of them but they look good on the packet), radishes, coriander (we cook with a lot of this), beans (to re-nitrate some crap soil), cucumber (the only green veggie my four-year-old will touch) and chives.

How hard can it be? Actually, pretty tricky, I think, and if you know me at all, you’ll be wondering how long my attention span will last on this one.

Nevertheless, I’ve been reading up on drip irrigation (stick a plastic pot into the soil and water it so that the water soaks down to the roots with little evaporation) and my guess is that East London is a decent place to grow vegetables year-round because it is largely sub-tropical.

I’m very keen to grow them in containers as I reckon it will be easier to control pests and the soil in my garden is pretty sandy and the growing space largely shaded. So it’s off to the dodgy junk yard on the West Bank this weekend to see what cheap containers I can come up with (I’ve been wondering about old metal filing cabinets for the job). I’ve also being reading up on companion plants and plan to grow marigolds and sorrel close to my crops to protect them from bugs. Easy peasy lemon squeezy!

Any suggestions from the gardeners out there would be appreciated and I’ll keep you posted.

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1. A South African businessman found R450 000 in R100 notes in the room safe of a Port Elizabeth hotel room forgotten behind by Indian Premier League team Kings XI Punjab — whose players include Australian Brett Lee, Indian Yuvraj Singh and Sri Lankan Mahela Jayawardene. For his troubles, he got a bottle of whisky and a signed cricket bat.

2. Finance Minister Trevor Manuel says he is willing to carry on in his post if asked by the country’s new president, although he could not “carry on forever”. Read the story at Business Day here. There are rumours in the political journalism circles that JZ may ask him to be deputy president. It would be a wily move (and Zuma is a canny old fox) but would Trev, whose number four on the ANC list, accept?

3. Business Day also reports that retail figures fell a record 4.5% in February, much more steeply than expected. Retail is the third biggest sector in SA and this could mean another rate cut at the Reserve Bank’s policy meeting at the end of April. Read the story here.

4. Here’s an interesting business story. South African construction giant  Murray & Roberts has pulled out of a R5-billion contract in Dubai, bringing its cancelled order book in the Middle East and elsewhere to R20-billion. Read the Engineering News story here. M&R doesn’t play around and its CEO is highly regarded so my guess is that they’re making so much hay while the sun shines with 2010 contruction in SA (for example, the Gautrain) that they don’t need the hassle of Dubai.

5. Talk about putting it out there. The Sowetan reports that Gauteng Health MEC Brian Hlongwa says he is so rich (from his consulting firm) he does his job for the love of the poor. This after the accusations that he could not afford his R7.2-million Joburg mansion on his salary. Glory be, we wish our next president could find himself gainful employment (perhaps with Hlongwa) so that we can all stop being suspicious about whose bankrolling him while in office. Read the Sowetan story here.

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Mutterings about the media, journalism, the economy and politics.

Your post’s URL: http://robertbrand.wordpress.co.za

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1. Former health minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang is poised to make a dramatic comeback in a cabinet reshuffle later this week, reports The Times, after Health Minister Barbara Hogan thumbed her nose at the government’s line on allowing the Dalai Lama  into the country. Read the story here.

2. And if you believe that, you’ve forgotten it’s April Fools’. Here a nice little story on IOL on the origins of the day, which appears to have evolved in many cultures simultaneously to coincide with the start of the first day of Spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

3. I always thought May 1 was the first day of Spring but Googling this has revealed that Spring and Autumn offically starts at the equinox –  when the sun is directly above the equator — and this year that was on March 20. Which means us in Southern Hemisphere are offically in Autumn and Spring will come around September 20/21… and that’s not  a  joke.

4. I know you’ve heard it before but the National Prosecuting Authority is now saying they will make an announcement on whether they are dropping the corruption and racketeering charges agaisnt ANC president Jacob Zuma on Friday. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court of Appeal has upheld an appeal by judges of the Constitutional Court relating to a dispute with Cape Judge President John Hlophe, whom the judges allege made inappropriate approaches to some of them about a pending judgment on Zuma.

5. And  Business Day says  South Africa’s trade deficit narrowed much more sharply than expected in February, as exports of vehicles and precious metals surged while machinery and oil imports dived. Read the story here.

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1. Former Springbok star Joost van der Westhuizen has decided not to press ahead with legal action over a sex and drugs video allegedly featuring him in a starring role, reports Beeld. He had planned to file charges of extortion and defamation and sue Heat magazine and Rapport newspaper for their reporting on the video. Read the News24 story here.

2. Making legal history, the Supreme Court of Appeal will hear an application today by the judges of the Constitutional Court who are appealing against an earlier ruling in favour of the Cape Judge President John Hlophe. The Constitutional Court judges want a high court ruling overturned that found that they infringed on Hlophe’s right to dignity by making public an allegation that he attempted to interfere in a judgment involving ANC president Jacob Zuma. Read The Times story here.

3. Rhema Ministries, the church that recently hosted ANC president Jacob Zuma at a service in Joburg, has announced an income of “slightly above R100-million” for the past year, mostly from “tithes and offerings” from its 40 000 congregants. Read the story on M&G’s website here.

4. A Department of Trade and Industry-led team is looking into a three-pronged plan to rescue the car industry, says Business Day, including tax adjustments to stimulate demand for cars. Read the story here.

5. There will probably be an interest-rate cut of at least one percentage point, to be announced on Tuesday. Yippee! And economists say there are more to come this year. Read the News24 story here.

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My spouse says it’s performance assessment time again at work. Thank the Goddess I don’t have to do those anymore.

The company I worked for for nine years until recently proudly introduced them quite a while back thinking they were being very Jack Welch and forward thinking.

In the beginning I thought they were great too. If you were smart and worked hard, you scored a good raise and a bonus. Cool! But towards the end of my tenure there, I got to thinking that being assessed and doing other people’s assessments were counter-productive to staff morale.

Read the full story

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